Strategic Priorities The Strategic Priorities is an academic and analytical quarterly of the National Institute for Strategic Studies en-US (O. M. Liashenko) Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 OJS 60 AGENTS OF INFLUENCE AS THE TOOL OF IMPACT OPERATIONS: TERMINOLOGICAL ASPECT <p><strong>The article </strong>is devoted to clarifying the notion «agents of influence», using the concept in the practical activity of security institutions and the role of agents of influence in the operations of impact. The emphasis is on the fact that the use of agents of influence was an integral part of the concept of «active measures» that were being implemented by the USSR (now by the Russian Federation) against democratic countries. The approaches to defining the agents of influence used during the Cold War were analyzed. It was found the some established criteria for assigning a person to the category of agent of influence and a number of professional groups that have appropriate official opportunities for influencing have been identified: journalists; experts (in particular non-governmental organization leaders); politicians; public servants, artists and religious leaders. It was made the attempt to divide the activities of agents of influence and spies. It is noted that, unlike agents, spies can act only willfully (in the criminal codes of many European countries the «direct intent» is indicated) and are related to specific foreign organizations/services (act in accordance for their task). In addition, the purpose of the spy is the information of which collection, storage, transfer, disclosure, providing access, theft, purchase, public announcement (in particular by the media) have negatively/may harm the country, its national security, interests of the nation, etc. In contrast, the activity of agents of influence is focused on subversion and is not directly related to the collection for official use only data.</p> Dmytro Dubov, Iryna Koretska ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 THE HUMANITARIAN POLICY OF THE HUNGARIAN IN ZAKARPATHY: HISTORICAL ORIGINS AND MODERN REALIZATION <p><strong>It is stated </strong>that the reasons for the activation of the humanitarian policy of Hungary in Transcarpathia are: the role of the former lands in the national consciousness; the Hungarian population of these lands, which must retain its national identity; common history, cultural domination, former state greatness; the population who accepted Hungarian citizenship as an electorate. One of the main subjects of Hungary’s offensive humanitarian policy, which focuses on the language issue, is Ukraine, given its difficult situation. The Hungarian side depends on its further relations with Ukraine depending on its humanitarian policy, requiring Ukraine to adjust its policy according to the Hungarian vision of conflicting humanitarian problems.</p> <p>The right-wing, conservative concept of the Orbán government about a strong and active state resonates with a certain statism that has historically emerged in the minds of Hungarian society. It embodies the concept of a Hungarian ethnic nation, an important component of which is the support of Hungarian minorities living abroad (including in Transcarpathia), helping them maintain their identity.</p> <p>The problem of actualizing the language issue reflects all of the most difficult moments of Hungary’s «central-eastern policy». These include the historical, cultural and socio-psychological aspects of this problem: the need to overcome the national trauma and the «Trianon complex» from the loss of Transcarpathia and other lands after World War II; seeking the commitment of the diaspora and the patriotic electorate; preservation of the Hungarian historical and cultural heritage in Transcarpathia; use of the requirements of the Hungarian right-wing radicals for the return of historical territories for the political blackmail of Ukraine.</p> <p>The importance of the development of the partnership between Ukraine and Hungary was stated, and it was stressed that the implementation of the Neighborhood Policy in the context of European integration processes requires the implementation of humanitarian cooperation activities, in order to develop common approaches to the issues of language, history and culture.</p> Vitalii Lozovyi ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 TRENDS IN IMPROVING UKRAINE’S MIGRATION POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF ENHANCING INTERNATIONAL MOBILITY OF CITIZENS <p><strong>In the face </strong>of aggression and war, the difficult situation in the country, the acquisition of a visafree regime with the EU, which greatly increased the opportunities for international mobility of Ukrainians, migration abroad has acquired new features and scales that require state response. In 2018, an inter-factional union of MPs on labor migration was formed in parliament. In 2019 only several draft laws were registered. They raised the key issues for the implementation of the state migration policy regarding (1) the institutional capacity of the state in regulating migration processes, (2) legal and social protection of Ukrainian citizens abroad, (3) state support of the diaspora, including the “new” diaspora, in order to encourage repatriation to Ukraine, (4) overcoming the shortage of human resources needed for the country’s economy through the immigration of foreigners.</p> <p>At the same time, the review of parliamentary parties’ election programs shows that their interest in solving migration problems is generally low, the debate around them is fragmented. At the same time, the topic of labor migration is being lobbied by business, concerned about the outflow of workers. The departure of young people and professionals excites the public that is aware that it can slow down the economic development of the country, impede reform and innovation. Therefore, the pressure on the authorities to improve migration policy will increase. Given the public sentiment, various policy initiatives are expected to improve migration legislation and institutional enforcement. It is important that the position of civil society, social partners, ensure the consistency and consistency of relevant work.</p> Olena Malynovska ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE OF DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF ENERGY INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES IN NUCLEAR AND RELATED FIELDS <p><strong>The global </strong>tendencies of introduction of innovative technologies in the energy sphere are analyzed. Innovations in this area are needed not only to improve welfare and energy security, but also to combat climate change. That is why the innovative component of Ukraine’s energy development is extremely relevant, and one of the key elements of improving energy security and ensuring Ukraine’s energy independence is the implementation of innovative developments in this field, taking into account international experience.</p> <p>Given the fact, that Ukraine has advanced nuclear power, sufficient raw material base of uranium and zirconium (which are the basic elements for the nuclear fuel production), the uranium mining, research and industrial base of production of zirconium production, scientific and technical personnel potential, emphasis is placed on studying the international experience of innovative development of nuclear energy and industry. Taking into account the innovation gaps in the nuclear field, identified by the International Energy Agency (non-electrical applications; Small Modular Reactors; innovative nuclear Accident Tolerant Fuels), proposals for strategic innovation priorities in the nuclear and related fields have been worked out.</p> <p>Recommendations were given to support (within the framework of international cooperation both at the corporate and state levels) innovative projects: small modular reactors, incl. on their use for hydrogen production; hydrogen fuel cells and innovative nuclear accident tolerant fuel for small modular reactors. This will allow to ensure innovative development of the economy of Ukraine and achieve both the set political (energy independence) and global (combating climate change) goals.</p> Dmytro Bobro ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 CRISIS AROUND IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL: INTERESTS AND POSITIONS OF KEY ACTORS <p><strong>The article </strong>analyzes the current state of the international crisis caused by increased confrontation in U.S. – Iran relations as a result of the unilateral renouncement of the president Donald Trump’s administration to fulfill the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal. The purpose of the article is to characterize the policies of key actors involved in a diplomatic conflict, based on the determination of their interests and position. The article emphasizes that the actions of the United States have been driven by the active aggressive revisionist policies of Tehran, which threatens Washington’s interests in the Middle East and the security of its leading allies. It was noted that the prospect of Iran’s acquisition of nuclear capabilities is only one in the series of threats that cause concerns of the U.S. leaders and has led to the application of a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iranian authorities (including the renewal of sanctions and the projection of military force in the region). In this way, the White House seeks to force Tehran to cooperate and retreat from positions it has gained in recent years (in fact, to abandon regional expansion that is being implemented in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen through various proxy forces). However, the success of this approach is questionable. Despite the indisputable dependence of the Iranian economy on the energy sector and the negative impact of U.S. sanctions on development indicators, Iran is still resisting Washington. In doing so, it implements a two-pronged policy. On the one hand, it continues aggressive action in the Persian Gulf region, which is strategically important for world trade, and, on the other – demonstrates other partners its willingness to fulfill terms of nuclear agreement if the United States refuses to take actions which Tehran considers as “economic terrorism”. Such diplomatic position is oriented towards the countries of Western Europe – Great Britain, France and Germany – which actively support the preservation of the deal. But they lack real tools capable of offsetting the negative effects of U.S. sanctions on Tehran and political readiness to oppose the U.S. position. As a result, the future of the nuclear deal remains shaky, and the prospects for a further escalation of the crisis are very real.</p> Mykola Zamikula ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 FORMATION OF CITIZENS LEGAL CULTURE AS A FACTOR OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE UKRAINIAN SOCIETY <p><strong>The article </strong>provides analysis of some topical issues related to the legal culture in Ukraine and its impact on socio-political processes. A significant gap between the norms of the current legislation and the actual practice of their implementation in public relations at all levels, which is one of the markers of an insufficient level of legal culture of society (both external and internal), is ascertained. It is determined that such a state of affairs has a significant negative impact on the situation in the humanitarian sphere, on the dynamics of reforms in Ukraine, on our country’s place in various world rankings, and on the general security situation, which is especially dangerous due to the ongoing hybrid war by Russia. Some organizational, legal and institutional steps taken in the context of judicial, law enforcement and anti-corruption reforms during 2015– 2019 are briefly reviewed.</p> <p>It is argued that the predictability of legal procedures and interactions (both judicial and extrajudicial), the existence of clear boundaries of the proper and permissible for all participants of public relations, which are the results of a high legal culture, are catalysts for positive processes in society. In particular, legal entities can be assured of the protection of their rights and freedoms, and consequently build a line of behavior by having a more far-reaching “planning horizon” at all levels of interaction (from interpersonal to international), not focusing solely on security needs (without providing of which it is impossible to move to a higher level needs).</p> <p>The need for further comprehensive state measures for the formation of a legal culture of citizens is emphasized. A number of promising steps to increase the level of general and professional legal culture have been proposed, including: elimination of critical shortcomings and flaws in the legislation; closing the gap between applicable legal norms and the practice of their implementation; development of Strategy for strengthening the legal culture; improving the quality of legal education, updating its forms and content; continuation of the sanctions and restrictive measures on the Russian Federation and its proxies; implementation of proactive policy in related humanitarian sectors, etc.</p> Serhii Zubchenko ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 THE KOSOVO ISSUE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SECURITY SITUATION ON THE BALKANS: CHALLENGES FOR UKRAINE <p><strong>The article </strong>deals with the main tendencies of the domestic political situation in Serbia and Kosovo, a partially recognized state, in the context of the complex process of post-conflict resolution. A number of problems of the internal development (lack of political elites consensus, weakness of economies, slow implementation of reforms in the governance, unresolved interethnic issues etc.) combined with a tight pressure of leading foreign forces are assessed.</p> <p>The current state of bilateral dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina concerning the achievement of a comprehensive political agreement for the normalization of relations and the key factors of foreign influences on the both sides are analyzed. The main tendencies, the security threats of non-resolving Kosovo precedent for the Balkan region are determined; the mediation efforts of the EU, interests and influences of third parties, prospects for a final agreement are considered.</p> <p>European integration remains the one strategic vector for all Balkan countries, including Serbia and Kosovo. Recognition of the Republic of Kosovo is a guarantee, a crucial point and an essential precondition for the success of this strategy for both countries. At the same time, if the European integration of Balkan states is frozen, the probability of the restoration and strengthening of regional conflicts will increase. Therefore, the effects of these changes will have a direct impact on European stability and security, and certainly have an impact on the international context.</p> <p>The idea of ethnic-territorial exchange as part of the plan for the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, presented by the parties, poses a serious danger, since changes of borders on the ethnic grounds with high probability will lead to the resumption of ethnic confrontations. Taking into account a number of the mutual territorial claims among the Balkan states it can provoke a chain reaction.</p> Viktoriia Orlyk ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 PECULIARITIES OF SECURITY COOPERATION OF UKRAINE AND LITHUANIA IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE RESPONSE TO THE RUSSIAN THREAT <p><strong>The peculiarities </strong>of cooperation between Ukraine and Lithuania in the field of ensuring national security in the context of counteracting the Russian threat are determined.</p> <p>It is defined that the Baltic States and Lithuania, in particular, have the similar strategic perspective with Ukraine on Russian threat, leading to a major transformation of the Euro-Atlantic security system. The vulnerability of the Republic of Lithuania to hybrid and conventional means of influence of Moscow through the status of the post-Soviet country and NATO member state is outlined. It is determined that Russia’s hybrid influence on Lithuania includes a set of information, political, diplomatic, economic and financial instruments that, along with the possibility of military invasion of the Russian Federation into the Baltic States, contribute to the intensification of Lithuania’ bilateral and multilateral cooperation with NATO allies and Ukraine.</p> <p>The main directions of cooperation between Ukraine and the Republic of Lithuania in the security area and the prospects of their development in the future are described, in particular, in the issue of exchange of experience on effective counteraction of hybrid threats with the development of a system for their early warning. It is determined that the strategic partnership of Kyiv with Lithuania is developing in several dimensions, including the continuation of diplomatic support of Ukraine by Lithuania in the international area, exchange of experience in the military-political sphere, development of a common proactive policy on identifying security challenges and threats, military-humanitarian assistance etc.</p> <p>According to the results of the research, there have been proposed recommendations on deepening the old and initiating new forms of strategic cooperation between Ukraine and the Republic of Lithuania at the level of activity of think tanks, state agencies and international platforms in order to develop common mechanisms for identifying and preventing security threats and challenges.</p> Oleksandra Davymuka, Valerii Kravchenko ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 NEW DIRECTIONS OF MILITARY-TECHNICAL COOPERATION UKRAINE – USA <p><strong>Military-technical </strong>cooperation of Ukraine with other countries is becoming a determining factor in providing national security and defense of the state, in particular in the political, military and economic spheres. This is manifested in such areas as the equipping of the Armed Forces and other components of the defense forces, the implementation of national weapons production projects and the export of Ukrainian weapons.</p> <p>The Russian Federation’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 led not only to the cessation of Ukrainian-Russian military-technical cooperation, but also translated Russia from a state of a competitor in the market of weapons of mass destruction into the state of the enemies of the Ukrainian state, which inevitably prompted a search for a new model of Ukrainian behavior in the market of weapons. Given that both Ukraine and the Russian Federation work in almost one segment of products and services in the above-mentioned market, moving from this segment of the main competitor is possible only with the support of our strategic partners and the use of international sanctions policy against the RF because of its aggression against Ukraine.</p> <p>The article analyzes the methods of RF activity in the market of anti-personnel weapons in the modern conditions in order to avoid sanctions from the EU and the USA. The possibility of using military-technical cooperation between Ukraine and the USA as an instrument of displacement of the Russian Federation from the world market of weapons-equipped vehicles is substantiated. It is proved that US interest in the implementation of sanctions imposed by the Russian Federation and the prevention of Russian weapons in the zone of conflict through third countries can be a powerful impetus for the development of Ukrainian-American cooperation in the military-technical sphere. Cooperation in traditional industries of Ukrainian defense industry, such as military transport aircraft building, armored industry, marine shipbuilding and turbine construction, rocket production, which is predominantly state-owned and not present on stock markets, requires additional attention from the state to attract US investment and assistance. Variants of development of these basic branches have been carefully studied in numerous Ukrainian professional studies.At the same time, cooperation needs attention in other areas, the most important of which, in our opinion, are: strategic materials for the defense industry and energy; electronic industry and communications.</p> <p>The article proposes the establishment and expansion of military-technical cooperation between Ukraine and the USA through the study and understanding of their strategic interests and the use of these interests in order to increase investment in the Ukrainian defense industry.</p> Vitalii Begma, Volodymyr Shemayev, Denis Radov ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200 INTERNAL FACTORS OF FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY OF UKRAINE AND PRIORITY MEASURES FOR OVERCOMING THEM <p><strong>The relevance </strong>of the publication is due to the need to identify the factors that provoke vulnerability in regulatory policy and increase the level of systemic volatility in the domestic economy, thereby reducing the possibility of ensuring the financial stability of Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to investigate the internal factors of vulnerability of the financial stability of Ukraine and to substantiate the recommendations to the relevant public authorities on how to counteract the risks and contribute to the improvement of financial stability. Research methods: terminological and statistical analysis, comparison, logical generalization, analysis, synthesis. The analysis is limited by the study of internal factors for the period 2014–2018, as well as the available statistical information as of October 2019.</p> <p>The analysis of internal factors of vulnerability of the financial sphere of Ukraine allowed to determine the main ones related to the sphere of public finances (the presence of budget deficit, accompanied by a chronic disturbance of the balance of its sources of financing and the increase in the volume of public debt; states); banking (maintaining a high level of dollarization of bank balances, a significant proportion of non-performing loans, etc.).</p> <p>The results of the analysis suggested ways of ensuring fiscal sustainability (use of risk-oriented approach in tax control; improving the assessment of fiscal risks in accordance with the requirements of the IMF Fiscal Transparency Code; disclosure in the format of open data of all forms of financial reporting and reporting for monitoring budget-forming taxpayers in industries and regions); increase of the debt stability of the state (measures to approximate and keep debt indicators within safe limits, to increase the efficiency of attracting financial resources in the internal market); on strengthening the stability in the banking sector (adoption of a number of regulatory acts on improving the efficiency of management of problem assets of banks; legislative regulation of the issue of distribution of profits of state-owned banks by amending the Law of Ukraine «On Management of State Property»).</p> <p>The findings and recommendations obtained from the analysis will have a positive impact on ensuring the financial stability of the country and reducing its vulnerability in the post-crisis recovery of Ukraine’s financial system.</p> Liudmyla Shemaieva ##submission.copyrightStatement## Sat, 14 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0200