CRISIS AROUND IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEAL: INTERESTS AND POSITIONS OF KEY ACTORS

Abstract

The article analyzes the current state of the international crisis caused by increased confrontation in U.S. – Iran relations as a result of the unilateral renouncement of the president Donald Trump’s administration to fulfill the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal. The purpose of the article is to characterize the policies of key actors involved in a diplomatic conflict, based on the determination of their interests and position. The article emphasizes that the actions of the United States have been driven by the active aggressive revisionist policies of Tehran, which threatens Washington’s interests in the Middle East and the security of its leading allies. It was noted that the prospect of Iran’s acquisition of nuclear capabilities is only one in the series of threats that cause concerns of the U.S. leaders and has led to the application of a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iranian authorities (including the renewal of sanctions and the projection of military force in the region). In this way, the White House seeks to force Tehran to cooperate and retreat from positions it has gained in recent years (in fact, to abandon regional expansion that is being implemented in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen through various proxy forces). However, the success of this approach is questionable. Despite the indisputable dependence of the Iranian economy on the energy sector and the negative impact of U.S. sanctions on development indicators, Iran is still resisting Washington. In doing so, it implements a two-pronged policy. On the one hand, it continues aggressive action in the Persian Gulf region, which is strategically important for world trade, and, on the other – demonstrates other partners its willingness to fulfill terms of nuclear agreement if the United States refuses to take actions which Tehran considers as “economic terrorism”. Such diplomatic position is oriented towards the countries of Western Europe – Great Britain, France and Germany – which actively support the preservation of the deal. But they lack real tools capable of offsetting the negative effects of U.S. sanctions on Tehran and political readiness to oppose the U.S. position. As a result, the future of the nuclear deal remains shaky, and the prospects for a further escalation of the crisis are very real.